The Practice

As CIO of a global macro hedge fund (Stategy Capital LP), I was responsible for turning a macro view into positions, risk, and real capital at stake — where macro stops being a thesis and becomes a decision with consequences.

As Senior Economic Advisor to the Governor of Colorado through the Great Financial Crisis, I worked on macro judgment at the policy level, under the kind of stakes where the analysis has to hold up when it matters most.

Research has run through all of it. In 2008 I co-authored Supercycles in Real Metals Prices at the International Monetary Fund, which introduced the statistical framework for identifying long-duration commodity cycles — work the field still builds on. In 2024 I co-authored Gold's Long-Term Expected Return with the World Gold Council, extending that approach to one of the world's most enduring assets, written for a serious non-academic audience.

And I teach it. As Professor of Practice in applied econometrics and forecasting at the Colorado School of Mines, and through years of professional sessions with funds, central banks, and institutions, I've spent as much time on the harder problem behind the methods — how a practitioner actually learns to use them — as on the methods themselves.

What Connects It

What connects all of it is a simple conviction: macro is only worth as much as the decisions it improves. Most macro analysis stays abstract. The work I care about is making it structured, rigorous, and usable — close to the decisions that depend on it. And the threads aren't separate. The research sharpens the advisory; the advisory keeps the teaching honest; the teaching forces the ideas to stay clear.

The current thread is AI integration — bringing modern machine-learning and AI tools into macro workflows, in advisory work, in research, and in how I teach. It's the same toolkit I've always used, applied to where the work is going now, including an ongoing partnership with Haver Analytics on applied macro and AI-driven workflows.

The work takes three forms — advisory, research, and education. If your decisions depend on macro, that's where a conversation starts.