Research

For funds and institutions that want rigorous macro research as a deliverable they can commission — drawn from models I've built and run over the past decade, and extending to bespoke questions across global macro.

The Work

The core is a specific expertise: macro cycles and their relationship to assets. Where are we in the growth, inflation, and liquidity cycles, and what does that imply for how assets behave? From proprietary models built and refined over a decade, this produces an ongoing global macroeconomic view and an asset allocation view — model-driven, not narrative.

The same toolkit extends to bespoke questions across global macro. When an institution needs a rigorous, original view on a specific problem — emerging-market equities, a forecast of US home prices, the outlook for a particular market — that can be commissioned as a defined piece of work in its own right.

The Proof

The methods are not new. Supercycles in Real Metals Prices (IMF, 2008) introduced the statistical framework for identifying long-duration cycles, still referenced in how the field studies them. Gold's Long-Term Expected Return (World Gold Council, 2024) brought the same standard of rigour to a single asset's long-term return, written for a serious non-academic audience — the kind of original, focused work a bespoke commission produces. And the models behind the recurring research were developed and run managing a global macro portfolio at Stategy Capital — tested against real capital, not only published.

The Engagement

Each engagement is scoped to the institution, in one of two forms. As an ongoing relationship — for example, a monthly deliverable of model-driven macro and allocation views, with a call built in to work through what they mean for your positioning. Or as a single, defined piece of bespoke research on a specific question, scoped and delivered in its own right. Either way, research is contracted separately from advisory work.

If you're considering commissioning macro research, tell me what you're working on and we'll see whether it fits.